Showing posts with label David Miliband. Show all posts
Showing posts with label David Miliband. Show all posts

Sunday, 10 August 2008

IS SOCIAL DEMOCRACY DEAD?

I think its fair to say that, from a political point of view, Gordon Brown is as dead as disco. His political insignificance is increasing from day to day, and the chances of him ever winning an election are as slim as Nicky Hilton.
But lets have a look at other countries: How do Labour or social democratic parties do on the European continent?
Many social democratic leaders seem to face (or have faced) similar political problems as Britain’s former Chancellor of the Exchequer. Germany’s Gerhard Schröder for example was once relatively popular, just like Brown. His No to the Iraq war made him be (together with former French president Jacques Chirac) respected by many, even though many other domestic decisions might have been of less greatness.
Today, Kurt Beck leads the German social democrats, after Schröder lost the election in 2005. Mr Beck is now, as junior partner in Angela Merkel’s so-called “Grand Coalition”, even more unpopular than Brown, and I doubt that he will ever be able to become German Chancellor.
The other country in which social democracy faces similar problems as in the UK is Spain. The election in March 2008 was big news across Europe, especially because the Spanish Kingdom was strongly divided. On one hand there was Mario Rajoy, a boring right-wing nebbish who seems like a poor actor trying to impersonate former Spanish PM José Marí Aznar. On the other hand, there was the (already relatively unpopular) PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who narrowly won the election.
Today, Zapatero is as unpopular as Aldi. This is to a large extend because of the economic situation (Spain’s unemployment rate is 10.7%). Very much like Brown, it is not only Zapatero’s fault that we ended up in this not too entertaining credit crisis, but both are incapable of dealing with the problem. The awful consequence is that this might now lead to Spain and Britain getting two politically incompetent PMs. The United Kingdom might soon have a Frisbee-throwing (how utterly ridicules are the pictures of David C. on holidays?!) PM David Cameron and Spain might return to Aznar-like politics (even though the Spanish conservatives are moving closer to the political centre).
It will be interesting to see if Europe’s social democratic and Labour parties will be able to recover from their leaders’ political inabilities in time for the next elections.
Schreiber

EUROPE AND SOUTH OSSETIA

Only 75’000 people live in South Ossetia. Nevertheless it might very well become one of the most controversial hot spots of this decade.
How should Europe react to the problem? Mainly, Europe will need to start speaking with one voice. At the moment we see Britain, France and Germany saying nothing actually helpful. Chancellor Merkel’s spokesman demanded "an immediate stop to any use of force” - This statement certainly will not end the escalating crisis.
PA reports that UK Foreign secretary (and wannabe PM) David Miliband fears that the conflict might spread to other parts of the region (as it has happened by now, with Russia sending troops to Abkhazia). But he does not seem to have a plan to solve this problem (surprise, surprise!).
The best idea comes from one of the new EU members: Poland’s Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called for an emergency EU summit to debate the war in Georgia. This is indeed the best idea so far. At some sort of special European Council the EU leaders could come up with a common resolution and bring peace to the troubled region.
Sweden's Foreign Minister Carl Bildt agrees with his Polish colleague and demands a "very strong response" from the EU. In order to present such a response a meeting of the EU leaders will be necessary.
This Council (the official name for meeting of EU leader) would have to be organised by the French, as they hold the EU presidency at the moment. But this meeting could be highly confrontational, as EU countries have very different approaches to the problem. On one hand you have the Sweden, several central-eastern republics and the Baltic countries, which strongly support Georgia. On the other hand you have France and Germany, two countries that keep relatively quiet about the entire problem. Nevertheless, the EU will be able to reach a common South Ossetian/Abkhazia policy.
Would Russia and Georgia stop bombing each other after the EU comes up with a statement? Probably not. But at least the EU would have a common negotiation basis. A Europe speaking with one voice has a far better chance to solve the problem that any other country, including the USA.
Schreiber